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Abstract The Event Horizon Telescope (EHT) has produced resolved images of the supermassive black holes (SMBHs) Sgr A* and M87*, which present the largest shadows on the sky. In the next decade, technological improvements and extensions to the array will enable access to a greater number of sources, unlocking studies of a larger population of SMBHs through direct imaging. In this paper, we identify 12 of the most promising sources beyond Sgr A* and M87* based on their angular size and millimeter flux density. For each of these sources, we make theoretical predictions for their observable properties by ray tracing general relativistic magnetohydrodynamic models appropriately scaled to each target’s mass, distance, and flux density. We predict that these sources would have somewhat higher Eddington ratios than M87*, which may result in larger optical and Faraday depths than previous EHT targets. Despite this, we find that visibility amplitude size constraints can plausibly recover masses within a factor of 2, although the unknown jet contribution remains a significant uncertainty. We find that the linearly polarized structure evolves substantially with the Eddington ratio, with greater evolution at larger inclinations, complicating potential spin inferences for inclined sources. We discuss the importance of 345 GHz observations, milli-Jansky baseline sensitivity, and independent inclination constraints for future observations with upgrades to the EHT through ground updates with the next-generation EHT program and extensions to space through the black hole Explorer. 

Abstract Frequency phase transfer (FPT) is a technique designed to increase coherence and sensitivity in radio interferometry by making use of the nondispersive nature of the troposphere to calibrate high-frequency data using solutions derived at a lower frequency. While the Korean very long baseline interferometry (VLBI) network has pioneered the use of simultaneous multiband systems for routine FPT up to an observing frequency of 130 GHz, this technique remains largely untested in the (sub)millimeter regime. A recent effort has been made to outfit dual-band systems at (sub)millimeter observatories participating in the Event Horizon Telescope (EHT) and to test the feasibility and performance of FPT up to the observing frequencies of the EHT. We present the results of simultaneous dual-frequency observations conducted in 2024 January on an Earth-sized baseline between the IRAM 30-m in Spain and the James Clerk Maxwell Telescope (JCMT) and Submillimeter Array (SMA) in Hawai‘i. We performed simultaneous observations at 86 and 215 GHz on the bright sources J0958+6533 and OJ 287, with strong detections obtained at both frequencies. We observe a strong correlation between the interferometric phases at the two frequencies, matching the trend expected for atmospheric fluctuations and demonstrating for the first time the viability of FPT for VLBI at a wavelength of  ∼1 millimeter. We show that the application of FPT systematically increases the 215 GHz coherence on all averaging timescales. In addition, the use of the colocated JCMT and SMA as a single dual-frequency station demonstrates the feasibility of paired-antenna FPT for VLBI for the first time, with implications for future array capabilities (e.g., Atacama Large Millimeter/submillimeter Array subarraying and ngVLA calibration strategies). 

ABSTRACT In this paper, we introduce a novel data augmentation methodology based on Conditional Progressive Generative Adversarial Networks (CPGAN) to generate diverse black hole (BH) images, accounting for variations in spin and electron temperature prescriptions. These generated images are valuable resources for training deep learning algorithms to accurately estimate black hole parameters from observational data. Our model can generate BH images for any spin value within the range of [−1, 1], given an electron temperature distribution. To validate the effectiveness of our approach, we employ a convolutional neural network to predict the BH spin using both the GRMHD images and the images generated by our proposed model. Our results demonstrate a significant performance improvement when training is conducted with the augmented data set while testing is performed using GRMHD simulated data, as indicated by the high R2 score. Consequently, we propose that GANs can be employed as cost-effective models for black hole image generation and reliably augment training data sets for other parametrization algorithms. 

ABSTRACT We present general relativistic radiation magnetohydrodynamics (GRRMHD) simulations of super-Eddington accretion flows around supermassive black holes (SMBHs), which may apply to tidal disruption events (TDEs). We perform long duration ($$t\ge 81,200\, GM/c^3$$) simulations that achieve mass accretion rates ≳11 times the Eddington rate and produce thermal synchrotron spectra and images of their jets. Gas flowing beyond the funnel wall expands conically and drives a strong shock at the jet head while variable mass ejection and recollimation, along the jet axis, results in internal shocks and dissipation. Assuming the ion temperature (Ti) and electron temperature (Te) in the plasma are identical, the radio/submillimetre spectra peak at >100 GHz and the luminosity increases with BH spin, exceeding $$\sim 10^{41} \, \rm {erg\, s^{-1}}$$ in the brightest models. The emission is extremely sensitive to Ti/Te as some models show an order-of-magnitude decrease in the peak frequency and up to four orders-of-magnitude decline in their radio/submillimetre luminosity as Ti/Te approaches 20. Assuming a maximum VLBI baseline distance of 10 Gλ, 230 GHz images of Ti/Te = 1 models shows that the jet head may be bright enough for its motion to be captured with the EHT (ngEHT) at D ≲ 110 (180) Mpc at the 5σ significance level. Resolving emission from internal shocks requires D ≲ 45 Mpc for both the EHT or ngEHT. 

Abstract We present an in-depth analysis of the newly proposed correlation function in visibility space, between the E and B modes of linear polarization, hereafter the EB correlation, for a set of time-averaged general relativistic magnetohydrodynamical simulations compared with the phase map from different semianalytic models and the Event Horizon Telescope (EHT) 2017 data for M87*. We demonstrate that the phase map of time-averaged EB correlation contains novel information that might be linked to black hole (BH) spin, accretion state, and electron temperature. A detailed comparison with a semianalytic approach with different azimuthal expansion modes shows that to recover the morphology of real/imaginary part of the correlation function and its phase, we require higher orders of azimuthal modes. To extract the phase features, we use Zernike polynomial reconstruction developing an empirical metric to break degeneracies between models with different BH spins that are qualitatively similar. We use a set of geometrical ring models with various magnetic and velocity field morphologies, showing that both the image space and visibility-based EB -correlation morphologies in magnetically arrested disk  simulations can be explained with simple fluid and magnetic field geometries as used in ring models. Standard and normal evolutions by contrast are harder to model, demonstrating that the simple fluid and magnetic field geometries of ring models are not sufficient to describe them owing to higher Faraday rotation depths. A qualitative comparison with the EHT data demonstrates that some of the features in the phase of EB correlation might be well explained by the current models for BH spins and electron temperatures, while others require larger theoretical surveys. 

We explore the plasma matter content in the innermost accretion disk/jet in M87* as relevant for an enthusiastic search for the signatures of anti-matter in the next generation of the Event Horizon Telescope (ngEHT). We model the impact of non-zero positron-to-electron ratio using different emission models, including a constant electron to magnetic pressure (constant βe model) with a population of non-thermal electrons as well as an R-beta model populated with thermal electrons. In the former case, we pick a semi-analytic fit to the force-free region of a general relativistic magnetohydrodynamic (GRMHD) simulation, while in the latter case, we analyze the GRMHD simulations directly. In both cases, positrons are being added at the post-processing level. We generate polarized images and spectra for some of these models and find out that at the radio frequencies, both of the linear and the circular polarizations are enhanced with every pair added. On the contrary, we show that, at higher frequencies, a substantial positron fraction washes out the circular polarization. We report strong degeneracies between different emission models and the positron fraction, though our non-thermal models show more sensitivities to the pair fraction than the thermal models. We conclude that a large theoretical image library is indeed required to fully understand the trends probed in this study, and to place them in the context of a large set of parameters which also affect polarimetric images, such as magnetic field strength, black hole spin, and detailed aspects of the electron temperature and the distribution function. 

The next-generation Event Horizon Telescope (ngEHT) will be a significant enhancement of the Event Horizon Telescope (EHT) array, with ∼10 new antennas and instrumental upgrades of existing antennas. The increased uv-coverage, sensitivity, and frequency coverage allow a wide range of new science opportunities to be explored. The ngEHT Analysis Challenges have been launched to inform the development of the ngEHT array design, science objectives, and analysis pathways. For each challenge, synthetic EHT and ngEHT datasets are generated from theoretical source models and released to the challenge participants, who analyze the datasets using image reconstruction and other methods. The submitted analysis results are evaluated with quantitative metrics. In this work, we report on the first two ngEHT Analysis Challenges. These have focused on static and dynamical models of M87* and Sgr A* and shown that high-quality movies of the extended jet structure of M87* and near-horizon hourly timescale variability of Sgr A* can be reconstructed by the reference ngEHT array in realistic observing conditions using current analysis algorithms. We identify areas where there is still room for improvement of these algorithms and analysis strategies. Other science cases and arrays will be explored in future challenges. 

We present a case for significantly enhancing the utility and efficiency of the ngEHT by incorporating an additional 86 GHz observing band. In contrast to 230 or 345 GHz, weather conditions at the ngEHT sites are reliably good enough for 86 GHz to enable year-round observations. Multi-frequency imaging that incorporates 86 GHz observations would sufficiently augment the (u,v) coverage at 230 and 345 GHz to permit detection of the M87 jet structure without requiring EHT stations to join the array. The general calibration and sensitivity of the ngEHT would also be enhanced by leveraging frequency phase transfer techniques, whereby simultaneous observations at 86 GHz and higher-frequency bands have the potential to increase the effective coherence times from a few seconds to tens of minutes. When observation at the higher frequencies is not possible, there are opportunities for standalone 86 GHz science, such as studies of black hole jets and spectral lines. Finally, the addition of 86 GHz capabilities to the ngEHT would enable it to integrate into a community of other VLBI facilities—such as the GMVA and ngVLA—that are expected to operate at 86 GHz but not at the higher ngEHT observing frequencies. 

In the past few years, the Event Horizon Telescope (EHT) has provided the first-ever event horizon-scale images of the supermassive black holes (BHs) M87* and Sagittarius A* (Sgr A*). The next-generation EHT project is an extension of the EHT array that promises larger angular resolution and higher sensitivity to the dim, extended flux around the central ring-like structure, possibly connecting the accretion flow and the jet. The ngEHT Analysis Challenges aim to understand the science extractability from synthetic images and movies to inform the ngEHT array design and analysis algorithm development. In this work, we compare the accretion flow structure and dynamics in numerical fluid simulations that specifically target M87* and Sgr A*, and were used to construct the source models in the challenge set. We consider (1) a steady-state axisymmetric radiatively inefficient accretion flow model with a time-dependent shearing hotspot, (2) two time-dependent single fluid general relativistic magnetohydrodynamic (GRMHD) simulations from the H-AMR code, (3) a two-temperature GRMHD simulation from the BHAC code, and (4) a two-temperature radiative GRMHD simulation from the KORAL code. We find that the different models exhibit remarkably similar temporal and spatial properties, except for the electron temperature, since radiative losses substantially cool down electrons near the BH and the jet sheath, signaling the importance of radiative cooling even for slowly accreting BHs such as M87*. We restrict ourselves to standard torus accretion flows, and leave larger explorations of alternate accretion models to future work. 

Abstract We investigate general relativistic magnetohydrodynamic simulations to determine the physical origin of the twisty patterns of linear polarization seen in spatially resolved black hole images and explain their morphological dependence on black hole spin. By characterizing the observed emission with a simple analytic ring model, we find that the twisty morphology is determined by the magnetic field structure in the emitting region. Moreover, the dependence of this twisty pattern on spin can be attributed to changes in the magnetic field geometry that occur due to the frame dragging. By studying an analytic ring model, we find that the roles of Doppler boosting and lensing are subdominant. Faraday rotation may cause a systematic shift in the linear polarization pattern, but we find that its impact is subdominant for models with strong magnetic fields and modest ion-to-electron temperature ratios. Models with weaker magnetic fields are much more strongly affected by Faraday rotation and have more complicated emission geometries than can be captured by a ring model. However, these models are currently disfavoured by the recent EHT observations of M87*. Our results suggest that linear polarization maps can provide a probe of the underlying magnetic field structure around a black hole, which may then be usable to indirectly infer black hole spins. The generality of these results should be tested with alternative codes, initial conditions, and plasma physics prescriptions.